Mission: Impossible- Dead Reckoning Part One is coming in on the softer side of expectations, but strong word of mouth should propel this one in the weeks to come.
Well… I may have gotten a little over-zealous with my predictions! I had just seen Mission: Impossible- Dead Reckoning Part One and thought it was absolutely fantastic, couple that with the fact that it has been getting great reviews (including the 9/10 from our own Chris Bumbray), nearly completely sold out showings at my local theater and a solid A cinemascore from audiences, and I thought this one was going to hit higher in its opening weekend. Right now the 3-day for Dead Reckoning Part One is coming in around $53 million, making it the fourth highest 3-day in franchise history after Fallout (61.2 million), Rogue Nation ($55.5) and M:I-2 (57.8). It still has a chance to take down the 5-day record which currently sits with M:I-2 at $78.8 million, but Saturday numbers will have to hit harder for it to achieve that.
The good news for Dead Reckoning Part One is that the films tend to have great longevity at the box office due to great word of mouth. Of course M:I-2 and Fallout didn’t have anything near the competition Dead Reckoning Part One is facing as M:I-2 faced off against Big Momma’s House in its second weekend while Fallout saw the new releases Christopher Robin, The Spy Who Dumped Me and The Darkest Minds in it second weekend. Dead Reckoning Part One is going up against Barbenheimer! But fear not, this is no Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny. Yes, both films carry near $300 million price tags, but international audiences will help propel Dead Reckoning Part One to success. In its third week, Dial of Destiny has amassed $260.5 million worldwide, that is give or take what Dead Reckoning Part One will accumulate in just its debut weekend.
I do still think the film has the potential to hit higher than what is currently projected (per Deadline), but in the long run, Mission: Impossible- Dead Reckoning Part One will be just fine. I am reminded of Avatar and Avatar: The Way of Water. Both films had openings under what was expected and legged out to be two of the biggest movies ever made.
Second place will belong to the Jim Caviezel fronted film Sound of Freedom with what is looking like a $20-$22 million weekend as the film hurtles toward the $100 million mark. I will be honest, two weeks ago I had never even heard of this movie, and now it seems to be all anyone can talk about because of how it is dividing audiences. As I have said in the past, these articles are strictly about the box office numbers. Any political or other type of topics are for other people to debate. With that said, I can only talk about the dollar and cents and in that regard this movie is absolutely killing it and may very well end its run as one of the biggest independent released films of all time. You can check out Chris Bumbray’s 6/10 review here.
Insidious: The Red Door is looking to take a horror movie standard 55-60% drop with an estimated $13-$14 million weekend for a running domestic total near $60 million and a worldwide around $100 million. Pretty impressive when you consider the entire franchise, all five films, carry a cumulative budget of $43.5 million and have pulled in over $642 million worldwide. I will have to look into it but this may very well be one of the most lucrative franchises ever created.
Fourth and fifth place are rounded out by a pair of Disney releases with Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny dropping what is looking like 53% for around a $13 million third weekend and a running total nearing $150 million and $260.5 million worldwide. With the slowdown in full effect, this one may hit slightly above its reported $300 million budget, but will not come close to hitting its budget plus marketing costs. It really is a shame such an iconic character is going out like this, but we have seen it before: does anyone remember Rambo: Last Blood? !
Rounding out the top five is Elemental as it continues its strong word of mouth campaign with an additional $8-$9 million which represents another small decline of around 12%. It’s domestic total by the end of day on Sunday will be over $125 million which will officially launch it past Pixar’s 2022 misfire Lightyear. Of course, with that $200 million budget, Elemental has a ways to go before it can actually be considered a success, but anything is better than just dropping these films directly on Disney+.
What do you make of Mission: Impossible- Dead Reckoning Part One’s opening numbers? Do you think the good word of mouth the film is earning can ultimately propel it to be a solid money maker the way the other films of the franchise have? Let us know in the comments and don’t forget to check back tomorrow when we have a full rundown of this weekend’s box office numbers.